U.S. CFOs, on average, believe there is a 31% chance that the U.S. economy will be in recession by year-end 2016, double the 16% chance predicted just nine months ago, according to the latest Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey. The executives say the biggest risk factors to cause recession are the slowdown in China (59% of CFOs assign China as a significant risk), political turmoil in the United States (53%), a stock market decline (50%), and the price of oil (40%).

In the above video, John Graham, finance professor at Duke’s Fuqua School of Business, also discusses minimum wage hikes and economic outlooks for Europe, Latin America, and Asia.

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