Confidence in economic conditions among accountants worldwide may not have hit rock bottom, but it’s close.
Sentiment in the first quarter of 2026 was the third lowest for any quarter since 2011, when the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants and the Institute of Management Accountants began conducting their quarterly economic conditions survey.
The only two darker quarters were the first two of 2020, when the world was in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The survey’s Confidence Index is calculated as the proportion of respondents more confident in the economic prospects facing their organization compared with three months ago, minus the proportion less confident.
This year’s first-quarter survey, which totaled 557 participants, produced a Confidence Index of -39.5. That was down sharply from -28.9 in the fourth quarter of 2025 but only slightly off the -38.8 recorded in last year’s first quarter. (The low readings for the first two quarters of 2020 were -45.3 and -40.3, respectively.)
Sentiment among the 50 CFOs who participated in the most recent poll was even more depressed than among the full survey base, with a Confidence Index of -42.0. That was a steep plunge from -22.6 and -21.1 in the fourth and first quarters of 2025, respectively.
The median quarterly Confidence Index since the survey was launched in the fourth quarter of 2011 has been -13.3.
The latest survey was conducted from March 3-19, just after the United States launched its war with Iran on Feb. 28. The outbreak of hostilities was “a major factor weighing on sentiment amid a surge in geopolitical uncertainty and the price of energy and some other important commodities,” ACCA and IMA wrote in their research report.
ACCA and IMA also calculate several other indices, some of which paint a brighter picture than the Confidence Index.
- The first-quarter Orders Index: The proportion of respondents reporting increased orders minus the proportion reporting declining orders weighed in at -12.6, a substantial improvement from -22.6 in the year-end fourth quarter and near the median of -12.9 over the survey’s history.
- The Capital Expenditure Index: The proportion of respondents reporting increasing investment in capital projects minus those scaling back such investment was 26.3. This index hasn’t changed very much since early 2022.
- The Employment Index: The proportion of respondents reporting “new jobs created/hiring resumed” minus those reporting “staff cuts/hiring freeze” was -32.3, not a great result but somewhat better than the two previous quarters.
The survey also asked respondents whether they encountered rising costs in the first quarter, to which more than two-thirds (69.1%) responded affirmatively. That was down from 63.7% in last year’s final quarter but well above the survey’s lifetime average of 47.9
Among CFO respondents, 62% said their costs increased in the first quarter.
