CFOs entered 2026 expecting pricing pressure to persist. Six months later, many are becoming more concerned that rising costs could prove even more difficult to manage.
According to the latest CFO Survey from Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, finance leaders increased their forecasts for both unit cost growth and price growth in 2026 while lowering expectations for economic growth over the next year. The findings suggest that concerns about inflation are intensifying as companies contend with higher energy costs and continued pressure on margins.
The survey, published June 24, was conducted between May 18 and June 5 among 530 finance executives. It found that CFOs raised their projections for unit cost growth and price growth by 1.1 percentage points compared with the previous quarter. Respondents also lowered their outlook for real GDP growth over the next four quarters to 1.8%, down from 2.1%.
The results build on a theme that has emerged repeatedly in recent editions of the survey. In December, CFOs said they expected pricing pressure tied to tariffs and other cost factors to continue into 2026. While executives remained moderately optimistic about the economy in the first quarter, the latest findings indicate rising costs are beginning to weigh more heavily on their outlook.
Pricing pressure remains stubborn
The latest survey suggests that concerns about pricing and cost inflation have not faded even as some of the uncertainty that dominated the end of 2025 has shifted.
In the fourth-quarter survey, CFOs expected prices for products and services to rise by a median of 3.5% in 2026. At the time, respondents anticipated moderate hiring growth, continued wage pressure and semi-stable economic growth.
Three months later, finance leaders still remained relatively upbeat. The first-quarter survey found that optimism about both the economy and their own companies had increased slightly despite uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical and domestic tensions. Researchers found little evidence that those developments had materially altered executive sentiment.
The latest results tell a different story. CFOs are now raising both cost and price expectations while trimming their GDP outlook.
One of the clearest drivers appears to be energy prices. Roughly two-thirds of respondents said higher oil prices have increased their firms' unit costs. Yet only about one-third said they have responded by raising prices charged to customers.
The findings also arrive amid renewed inflation concerns. Consumer prices rose 4.2% in May, the highest annual rate in three years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data reported by CFO Dive. Energy prices accounted for more than 60% of the increase as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz drove fuel costs higher. While the future of those disruptions remains uncertain, economists have warned that prolonged constraints on energy supplies could place additional pressure on inflation and complicate the economic outlook.
Against that backdrop, many companies appear to be absorbing at least part of the increase rather than immediately passing it along to customers. While that approach can help preserve customer relationships and support demand, it can also place additional pressure on margins when higher costs persist.
The survey's findings also echo comments made earlier this year by John Graham, academic director of the survey and a finance professor at Duke University. In March, Graham said researchers had not detected any significant impact on CFO sentiment from geopolitical developments, but cautioned that rising oil prices could eventually affect executive outlooks if they remained elevated.
Companies signal limits to absorbing costs
The survey's most notable finding emerged from a hypothetical question about oil prices.
Researchers asked respondents how their businesses would react if oil averaged $120 per barrel through the end of the year. Under that scenario, CFOs indicated they would pass through substantially more of their costs to customers than they are today.
Average expectations for unit cost growth would rise to 7.3%, while expected price growth would reach 6.7%.
The relatively small difference between those figures suggests companies would be far more aggressive about raising prices if higher energy costs proved sustained rather than temporary.
"One striking feature of the current situation is that while firms that are impacted by higher oil prices have only passed through a portion of the increased costs in the form of higher prices, should oil prices rise further and remain elevated, that pass-through increases to roughly 90%," Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer said in a statement.
"This suggests that in an environment of sustained higher cost pressures, firms may be unwilling or unable to absorb any more costs."
The survey results suggest that the pricing pressures CFOs anticipated at the end of 2025 have not disappeared. Instead, concerns about costs appear to be broadening as higher energy prices add another layer of uncertainty to an economic outlook that is becoming less optimistic.
