If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs ...
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it.
Rudyard Kipling wasn’t speaking of the news that hits the web daily, but he could have been.
Judging by the media headlines this morning, you’d think the world was crumbling: Argentina is devaluing its peso by 18% to curb “market chaos;” “America is About to Fall Off a Child Care Cliff,” according to a Bloomberg opinion piece; driverless cars are once again stalling traffic in San Francisco; and the Maui wildfires have claimed 93 lives and, FEMA estimates, could amount to $5.52B in “capital exposure.”
Fortunately, most CFOs exercise caution and don’t have knee-jerk reactions to headlines and forecasts of doom. To lead a business and manage people, you have to have a clear-headed view of trends and economic developments. This is why, just three weeks before Labor Day weekend, CFOs in danger of not hitting their goals aren’t giving up. There are still four solid months to deliver on this year’s objectives. And with the inflation rate falling and the U.S. economy still buoyant, there’s hope.
(The Trial Balance is CFO’s weekly preview of stories, stats, and events to help you prepare.)
Part 1: 2023 Goals in Jeopardy and Small Business’s Access to Capital
According to an upcoming story by Reporter Adam Zaki, finance teams and their leaders face some obstacles in hitting their 2023 goals. Many CFOs and finance staffers are working harder than they expected this year, and about one-fourth of all teams are operating at least one person short, according to new data. (8/16)
As small business goes, so does the U.S. economy. Senior Reporter at Large Vincent Ryan looks at the macroeconomic challenges plaguing small businesses and the conditions for small-business financing when capital is expensive and terms are tight. (8/15)
Part 2: Economic Calendar
Monday — James Bullard steps down as head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, a month after announcing he was taking the role of inaugural dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr., School of Business at Purdue University. A search is underway for his successor. “We have our work cut out for us,” said the St. Louis Fed board chair. “Bullard combines economic scholarship with management savvy.”
The Independent Community Bankers of America holds its two-day CFO Forum in Kansas City. Topics include liquidity strategies, cyber risk management, and accounting and auditing. (Stay on top of all in-person events here.)
Tuesday — Retail sales data is expected to show a 0.4% increase in July, up from June’s 0.2% bump, with some analysts predicting an even larger increase. Evidence of current consumer sentiment and behavior will also come this week from the earnings of retailers Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and Ross Stores.
Wednesday — Housing starts and building permits data are due, and the Federal Release its numbers for industrial production and capacity utilization.
The Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its July meeting, after which Chair Jerome Powell told the press the committee was looking to ensure inflation was “durably down.”
Thursday — The Securities and Exchange Commission holds a closed meeting.
![A view of the skyline of Philadelphia, with the bronze statue of William Penn in the foreground](/imgproxy/TO2gXH1BEehVuooXxFX7yw734KGwI1DnBdQH9OUwRk0/g:ce/rs:fill:1600:0:0/bG9jYWw6Ly8vZGl2ZWltYWdlL0dldHR5SW1hZ2VzLTE0MDIxMzg4NDMuanBn.jpg)
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank releases its monthly index of manufacturing business performance in the district. The index, which has been negative for several months, tracks new orders, current shipments, employment, prices paid and received, and management expectations.
The Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Indicators index.
Friday — President Joe Biden hosts the Japanese prime minister and the president of South Korea at Camp David.
Earnings this week — Home Depot, Walmart, Foxconn, JBS, Cardinal Health, Pandora, Carlsberg, Cisco, Target, Tencent, Lenovo, Telstra, Dere, Estée Lauder, Madison Square Garden Entertainment, H&R Block, CAVA, Jack Henry & Associates, Avnet, Applied Materials, Bill.com, Ross Stores, TJX Companies, Monday.com, JD.com.
Sports — In the United States, the NFL preseason, which kicked off August 3, gets more attention than track and field. But for many of the other 199 countries participating, the World Track and Field Championships, beginning Saturday, August 19, in Budapest, is a big deal. Here’s the U.S. viewing schedule.
Part 3: Warning Signs of a Troubled Deal
Frank Williamson of Oaklyn Consulting, who has written on many aspects of M&A for CFO, tackles how to recognize when a deal is in trouble. “CFOs and other deal team members should always keep a keen eye for any changes that might indicate doubt from the other side,” he writes in his column this week. (8/15)
Stat of the Week
$5,588
The average monthly rent in Manhattan, up 9% over the last year, according to real estate firms Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. The median rent is $4,400.