The organization also warned that the recent surge in COVID-19 cases could threaten the market's recovery.
“It is mostly a fundamentals-driven market, but the icing on the cake is the worry about Iran."
In the first quarter, the benefits of higher oil prices were offset by weakness in Exxon's chemicals and refining businesses.
With the shale boom continuing, the IEA says the U.S. will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's No. 2 producer.
After predicting last month the market would return to balance, the agency now says that forecast may have been premature.
OPEC appears to have calculated correctly that increasing its production in response to falling oil prices would force out high-cost U.S. producers.
New data from the Energy Information Administration confirm production has taken a hit from the slide in oil prices.
