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Managing in the Fog

The struggle to make meaningful forecasts in a downturn.

Economist Staff, The Economist
February 26, 2009

Forecast quality unrelated to the downturn

'... has decided against issuing a 2009 financial forecast to investors, arguing that it is difficult to predict what is going to happen, given the parlous state of the world economy.' Actually, the problem is it's difficult to predict, period, unrelated to the state of the economy. It just appears easier to predict in good times which are mistaken for stable times. In chaotic times at least forecasts are bracketed in 'we can't really say.' In apparently/allegedly stable times forecasts don't have that caveat, and that's when they most need it.

Posted by Adam Amaco | January 10, 2010 02:09 pm

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