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Today in Finance for August 21, 2003

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Time to Take Care of Top Performers

A rebound in the job market may send many middle managers packing. Also: differing views on Amerco's bankruptcy; restating with one hand and pricing an IPO with the other; catching a worm; a rare pension exemption granted to Northwest; and more.

August 21, 2003

Now may be the time — before the job market strengthens — to nip employee turnover in the bud.

Nearly half of middle managers in the United States are either currently looking for another job, or plan to do so, according to Accenture. In a survey of more than 500 middle managers, more than one-third (38 percent) said they are currently looking for another job; another 10 percent plan to do so when the economy improves and the job market strengthens. Of those currently looking, nearly two-thirds (64 percent) said they will intensify their searches when the market picks up.

"Given the early indicators of a possible U.S. recovery, companies need to identify their top performers, rethink their investments in them, and find ways to keep them happy and loyal," said Edward Jensen, a partner in Accenture's Human Performance service line.

When asked to identify the one factor most motivating them to seek different jobs, 56 percent cited better pay or benefits. Others factors included better conditions or job prospects (12 percent), better training and development opportunities (8 percent), lack of prospects or advancement at their current jobs (8 percent), dislike of their current jobs (7 percent), and dislike of their bosses (6 percent).

The findings also show, however that the respondents themselves are somewhat pessimistic about a quick rebound in the job market and the economy. Only 13 percent said they believe the job market will strengthen and the economy will improve within the next six months; 30 percent believe it will be two years or more before that happens. The majority said the economy will rebound either within 6 to 12 months (26 percent) or between one and two years (27 percent).

"Companies should recognize that people will leave, and, rather than trying to manage overall attrition, they should align their key managers and workforce programs with the company's overall strategy," said Jensen. "They should understand that the current talent war is more about access to talent than just owning it, and they should consider alternative resourcing strategies that include a mix of full time, flex-time, outsourcing, etc. Finally, they might take this opportunity to begin gearing up their recruiting efforts to attract talent that is — or may soon be — available."

Stockholders, Bondholders Differ on Amerco Bankruptcy
Amerco, the company that owns U-Haul, has seen its stock price more than triple in the short time since it sought Chapter 11 protection in June. The cause — an unusual investor relations campaign — may, ironically, hinder the company's efforts to emerge from bankruptcy.

Amerco chairman Edward J. Shoen, one of the children of founder Leonard S. Shoen, has taken his case on the road, meeting with potential and actual stockholders and talking up the company's shares, according to an article in The New York Times. "We've been in the U-Haul business for 58 years now, and we're pretty good at it," he was quoted as saying. "There is shareholder value here. I believe it and others believe it, too."

So far, it seems his message is getting across. The stock closed at $15.25 Tuesday, up from $4.08 at the time of the Chapter 11 filing and $1.36 in October.

Of course, maybe this is an easier trick to perform with a closely held company. According to the Times, 55 percent of the stock is controlled by Shoen's family and executives of the company, and a further 12 percent by other employees.

Holders of the nearly $600 million of Amerco bonds outstanding, however stand to lose plenty. Very likely, many of them expected to receive stock before they would allow a reorganization to proceed. As of Monday, Amerco's bonds were trading at 84 percent of their face value, said Robert Ryan, an analyst with Banc of America Securities who specializes in distressed securities — implying that bondholders fear they will not get all their money back.

All the same, Shoen has been traveling around the country and meeting with money managers to promote Amerco. Ian Gilson of Roth Capital, an investment bank in Newport Beach, California — the lone analyst who had been covering the company and who arranged the meetings for Shoen in Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee, New York, and San Francisco — defends the tactic, which is unusual in a bankruptcy situation. Gilson argues that he has recommended the stock since the bankruptcy filing because "the value of the company as an ongoing operation is well in excess of what it was trading at when it filed for bankruptcy."

Others disagree, according to the Times. "It does seem to me that flogging the company's stock is not the best use of his time," said Wilbur Ross, an investor in troubled companies who does not own Amerco debt. "Sooner or later, he will have to make a deal with the bondholders."

Shoen's history, however, suggests that he may be more of a fighter. In 1986 he and several of his 12 siblings ousted their father, who was then chief executive, and Shoen ultimately took control.


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