Canton: Within five years we'll witness the rise of the neural net, genetic algorithm, and expert systems that provide advice for CFOs and treasurers — such as what is the best play to make for an overnight investment. The systems will create "expert behavior" rules from massive databases that are filled with previous transaction data and outcomes. Eventually CFOs will use financial software agents to "clone" their expertise for true multi-tasking.
CFO.com: Will wireless devices figure into the financial function?
Canton: Yes. Here's one near-term example: A CFO is playing golf on a Sunday. An intelligent agent contacts the CFO's wireless device and signals that within the next two hours there is an opportunity to buy 100,000 sheets of copper at a Japanese auction. The agent has already checked the supply chain data and reports that this would be a good acquisition. With an authorization code and a finger print ID, the CFO places a bid for the copper sheets, and taps into his handheld device a ceiling price and other parameters. The agent does the rest and signals the CFO when, and if, the deal goes through.
CFO.com: So supply chain innovation is inevitable?
Canton: Every CFO — whether from a service or product company — must become savvy about supply chain innovation. In five years, everyone will be using end-to-end, Web-centric technology to accelerate the supply chain. However, the Web-based supply chain is not a breakthrough, it is simply a new commodity. The innovation will be next generation supply chains that are proactive, not reactive.
CFO.com: Will manufacturing economics change?
Canton: Yes, and real-time innovation and the advent of nanotechnology will change the economics of the day. Nanotech is a fundamental design science that manipulates matter at the atomic level. That's 100,000 times smaller then the head of a pin. This revolution will make Internet advances seem small. Applications are just emerging in the business sector. Look for an impact on energy, manufacturing and biotech. But eventually, manufacturing facilities that incorporate different small technologies will produce on-demand products in an inexpensive, flexible and rapid process. This is going to be big over the next decade.
CFO.com: How will nanotechnology alter manufacturing economics?
Canton: Imagine a nanochip that delivers over 50 gigahertz of speed with the processing power of 10 supercomputers that can be placed in a device that is smaller than a key chain — and is priced less than a quartz watch; or a super strong and inexpensive construction material that has the strength off steel yet the properties of plastic. Certain nanotechnologies will reduce the fabrication cost of computers by 50 percent, and decrease drug development costs by 70 percent. When real cost reductions for essential goods and services drop, it affects the quality of life. Development of new energy sources, driven by nanotech, could wean us off of oil in our lifetime.
CFO.com: In a work world filled with nanotechnology, real-time supply chains, and cross-border deals with no boundaries, what is the prognosis of the talent pool?
Canton: Human talent will be in demand. Currently, there are one million high-tech jobs in the U.S., and companies are unable to fill the vacancies. In five years, there will be two million high-tech jobs in the U.S. By 2010 the U.S. will have a shortfall of over ten million jobs, and not just high-tech. The talent wars of the 21st century have just begun. Every CFO should be concerned about this growing issue.
CFO.com: What effects will the shortage have on corporations?
Canton: As expected, salaries will rise as executives aim to acquire and retain experienced high-tech workers. The key question, however, will be how to do that. Do you move some operations off shore, to places like India where the talent pool is bigger? Do you set up a more flexible workplace to entice candidates? In a post September 11 environment, it is likely that an agreeable, flexible work place will become more important than money.
CFO.com: Are there any other human resources trends that CFOs should keep an eye on?
Canton: Biotech. New drugs and medical procedures will enhance human performance and longevity over the next five years. That means that the 78 million baby boomers — the company veterans — won't be retiring as planned. These older workers are the most experienced, and they will be the most coveted. As a result, staffing policies and procedures will be reworked to accommodate the 65-year-old-plus employees that are capable and willing to work much longer. We will need the aging boomers expertise in a world where the workforce is shrinking.
CFO.com: Let's jump to the future of corporate security. What do CFOs need to know about systems security?
Canton: The more things "get connected" the more potential there is for security risks. My advice is for CFOs to invest more in encryption, firewall, and other security technologies in 2003. Also, CFOs should understand the new definition of risk management, and redefine technology's role in making the enterprise secure. Too few CFOs understand this. Not enough money is being spent here. Terrorism that targets corporate financial infrastructure is next. Beware.
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