3. GRID COMPUTING
Grid and Bear It
Over the past few months, IBM has been busy unveiling several iterations of its "Grid" computing architecture, a system that tackles complex problems by harnessing the processing power of many computers connected by a high-speed network.
In its early days, such power is likely to come in handy for genetic research, weather modelling and other traditional supercomputing tasks. IBM is building a Grid for America's National Science Foundation, which will perform 13.6 trillion calculations per second, making it 1,000 times faster than IBM's chess-playing Deep Blue. According to John Patrick, vice-president of Internet technology at the US computer giant, Grid computing should begin entering mainstream corporate computing next year. Among the sectors that have an immediate need for Grid are the pharmaceutical, energy and car industries.
For businesses that shy away from the expense of building their own Grid, IBM points out that its Grid can be used like a power plant, dispensing services as needed. Patrick says the business case for such a utility-like approach is a strong one for two reasons. First, the Grid offers economies of scale. Second, companies will be spared the unpredictable performance of public networks, such as the Internet, because the Grid is designed to handle spikes in demand.
While IBM's own global services unit is a logical candidate to operate a Grid utility, it faces competition from niche start-ups like Cluster Solutions of France (financial services) and Swiss-based Gridcomputer (life sciences).
4. WIRELESS NETWORKING
Run Free
Most experts believe wireless networking will be a hot technology next year. But that consensus ends abruptly when it comes to predicting which wireless standard will dominate 2002: Bluetooth, 802.11b (Wi-Fi), or GPRS.
In many respects, of course, there isn't much room for debate. Each standard serves a different need. Bluetooth provides a wireless link between devices up to ten metres apart, 802.11b up to 100 metres and GPRS between any two points on an ordinary GSM mobile phone network. The latter's superior reach, however, must be set against the faster data-transfer dates offered by 802.11b and Bluetooth's low cost. In this light, the contest is really about which standard will beat the others in finding a home inside European organisations. Looking to the US for guidance is of limited use. While 802.11b, and now the speedier 802.11a upgrade, quickly won over American firms, there are good reasons why it may lose some charm this side of the Atlantic.
For a start, Europe has its own home-grown alternative to 802.11. Called HiperLAN-2, it offers, some wireless experts say, better support for streaming media and interactive applications than 802.11. But European users are in a bind: 802.11-based products are in the shops, but no one knows when the 5-GHz frequency both standards use will be allocated by national regulators. As for Bluetooth and GPRS, there's no doubt about their place in the radiomagnetic spectrum. But whether they've won over corporate Europe remains to be seen.
In any event, another development in 2002 might turn the standards dilemma on its head. Innovative companies such as US-based Embedded Wireless Devices are releasing devices capable of concurrently supporting multiple standards and seamlessly switching between them. In that case, companies can invest in wireless networking without fear of being locked in to a standard that doesn't get a regulatory stamp of approval.
5. INTERNET PAYMENT SERVICES
Pay to Play
There is still no secure way to make small, one-off payments on the Internet without a credit card. That leaves some 60 percent of consumers reluctant to make purchases over the Internet, says Jupiter Research. This reluctance sank many Internet businesses that were forced to rely on site advertising alone for revenue. Moreover, says Jakob Nielsen, a principal of the Nielsen Norman Group, an Internet consultancy, it forced them to lower the quality of the "free" content and services they offered, undermining customer confidence further.
But Nielsen predicts 2002 could be the year when the "user-pays" model finally makes its way to the Internet. He reckons countries like Denmark and Sweden will lead the pack. "These countries are small enough so that all of the major websites and Internet service providers can get together and settle on the necessary technology to allow users to pay for services over the net," Nielsen says.
In theory, this should address some of the main objections to alternative payment systems: there are too many of them and they are incompatible. In practice, there is no guarantee a spirit of co-operation will hold, let alone extend into more competitive markets such as the UK and France. Still, there are signs that a viable alternative to credit cards exists with programs like Yahoo! PayDirect, a joint venture between the Internet portal and HSBC, the UK-based bank. PayDirect users register their credit card or bank account with HSBC. They can then transfer money to and from their PayDirect account, which can be used to buy goods and services from participating merchants or other individuals with a PayDirect account. The next challenge will be to find a way of linking Yahoo!'s programs with rivals like PayPal and Microsoft's Passport.
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