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Computing Power on Tap

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Two hardware developments are bringing the Grid within reach. One is the rapid increase in network speeds. Today, a normal modem connection in the home has the same data-carrying capacity as the backbone of the Internet had in 1986. The latest version of the Internet protocol (IPv6) used for sending data from one computer to another will make it easier to standardise video conferencing and remote operation on other computers — core components of a Grid service.

Hardware providers are already anticipating the needs of the Grid in their planning. One example is Géant, a European network with transmission speeds measured in gigabits per second that is being touted by a company called Dante in Cambridge, England. Such data networks will be the equivalent of the high-voltage power cables that criss-cross countries.

The second factor that is helping to make the Grid possible is the growth in power of individual microprocessors. This continues to follow Moore's law, with processors doubling in power every 18 months. Today, even the humblest PC has enough spare processing power and storage capacity to handle the extra software baggage needed to run Grid applications locally. This is crucial, because no matter how clever the Grid may be, large amounts of computer code will still have to be transported to and from individual processors so that they have the tools to deal with any unpredictable task.

When the Grid really takes off, it will render obsolete much of the computing world as it is today. Supercomputers will be the first to feel the pressure — much as networked PCs consigned mainframe computers to the basement. Ignore for a moment the pronouncements by industry leaders and government steering committees. The best thing about the Grid is that it is unstoppable: it is just too good an idea to remain dormant now that most of the enabling technology is in place.

Like the Internet, the Linux operating system and countless other open-source endeavours before it, the key breakthrough that will make the Grid an everyday tool will doubtless come not from some committee in Brussels, Geneva or Washington, but from some renegade programmer in Helsinki or Honolulu. When? It could be any time during the next decade — perhaps even next week.