We're moving toward what Hedman calls ''a mobile Net society.'' It may take another three years to get past the teething pains, however.
5. The Searchers
Software Agents ETA: 3 years
The scarcest corporate resource isn't computing power or network bandwidth. It's time. Enter software agents, or softbots. Softbots are miniprograms that free humans from routine tasks by automating certain computing functions. In time, experts predict softbots will exercise judgment on the user's behalf.
Some softbots serve as personal assistants, finding and filtering information. Others improve process and workflow across an organization and assist with network management and diagnostics. An agent might watch for an event in a computer system, for instance, and issue an alarm when it occurs. It's believed corporate use of agent-based monitoring programs will dramatically pare IT support costs and ratchet up worker productivity.
Softbots will likely be used in data mining, as well, performing tedious searches in background mode. Mobile agents could even propagate across a network, camping where needed.
Examples of agent technology already abound. Provo, Utah-based networking giant Novell's DigitalMe initiative enables information to flow from a user's client device to an ecommerce server, automatically filling in forms on a retail Web site -- a customer time saver. And Hewlett-Packard Labs in Palo Alto, California, has developed e-speak, a platform that enables Web-based networks of services to communicate with each other.
Scientists believe software agents will grow more sophisticated as artificial-intelligence techniques mature. A neural network can learn the interests of an Internet shopper by correlating the locations the surfer visits, as well as associated input. That way, the softbot can consistently deliver content of real interest to the consumer. The result should be what Marcus Zillman, CEO of BotTechnology.com, a community site for developers, calls ''the ultimate search bot.''
6. Casting a Wider Net
Internet2, advanced networking ETA: 3 years
Folks at the University Corporation for Advanced Internet Development (UCAID), the Washington, DC-based secretariat for Internet2, keep tab on the most-asked questions about their much-trumpeted project. Topping the list: ''When can I connect?'' Not far behind: ''When is the IPO?''
The answers: ''you can't'' and ''never.'' Not a specific technology, Internet2 is more a scientific playground that tries to re-create the R&D environment that spawned the Information Superhighway and World Wide Web. Since its start in the mid-1990s, UCAID has attracted 178 US academic institutions and 70 companies as members. In addition to a who's who of high tech, the roster comprises companies like J.P. Morgan & Co. -- businesses that want a front seat on the future.
The universities and colleges bring research skills and demanding network users; the companies supply equipment, services, and cash. Computer networking giant Cisco Systems Inc. has given tens of millions of dollars' worth of network routers, while Qwest Communications Inc. has thrown in complimentary bandwidth. Says Heather Boyles, UCAID's director of government and international relations: ''The projects provide a valuable space for companies to work in ways not possible in normal commercial environments.''
With time, it's believed Internet2 will give rise to dramatic network technologies, such as IPv6 (next-gen Internet protocol), multicasting, and quality of service (24/7 delivery of mission-critical data and programs over the Internet). Those innovations should lead to lucrative commercial applications -- things like digital libraries and virtual laboratories.
7. Pulp Fiction?
Electronic paper, digital ink ETA: 3 years
The paperless office is a lost cause, says Nick Sheridon, senior research fellow at Xerox Corp.'s Palo Alto Research Center. But the pulp-paperless office -- that's a different story.
Sheridon and his team are working on electronic reusable paper. The technology, which Xerox calls Gyricon, comprises minuscule balls, white on one side, colored on the other, that rotate in response to an electric charge -- digital ink, in effect. To the naked eye, the material resembles superfine sandpaper between two sheets of clear film. Sheridon anticipates resolution close to that of a typical laser print job.
3M has signed up to focus on production of the paper, leaving Xerox to concentrate on devices. Xerox's main rival in the pursuit of electronic paper is Cambridge, Massachusetts-based E Ink Corp., which is commercializing technology developed at MIT's Media Lab. Backed by the Hearst Corp. and others, E Ink already has a signage product on the market. The application is obvious: billboard ads that change with the push of a button.
Xerox, while interested in that application, believes the real promise of digital ink is in newspapers and books -- or any disposable document, such as draft copies -- that can be updated without being reprinted. Contracts would also seem to be ideally suited for electronic paper.
Wireless transmission of data will play a key role in the rise of digital ink. One possibility is a wandlike instrument a user waves over a sheet, realigning the balls into new text and images. Or data could be stored in memory chips implanted in the devices themselves. Either would likely be a boon to mobile workers.
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