Using technology originally developed at the UK's NatWest Bank, member institutions of Mondex International, the MasterCard-led consortium, started to launch Mondex cards with mondo hype in the mid-1990s. As of yet, the cards have not lived up to expectations. Even Banksys, a Belgian banking network operator that has issued some 25 million smartcards, has had a slow go changing customers' minds about electronic money. The difficulty, says Alan Laird, marketing manager for e-solutions at French electronics conglomerate Groupe Bull, is altering established habits. ''When you describe it to consumers, they think it's a great idea,'' Laird says. ''The problem is getting them to use it.''
It seems, for most people, there's nothing like cash. That doesn't mean smartcards are dead and buried. Currently, there are 1.1 billion smartcards in circulation. And the smartcard concept -- putting processing power onto a plastic, all-in-one-card -- remains intriguing. No less a force than Microsoft has gotten behind the idea, releasing its Windows Smart Card Toolkit.
But smartcards need some refining. Much of that reshaping will come from Europe, where smartcards are generally more accepted. Laird believes smartcards will catch on because they speed up online transactions and offer private and public key encryption. That verification of a user's identify, Laird says, makes smartcards much safer than conventional credit cards. Some banks already use smartcards, in tandem with biometrics, to beef up security for online customers.
Many prognosticators believe the real promise of smartcards lies in user identification. Soon, consumers will be able to use the cards to encrypt mail and identify themselves to online businesses. Moreover, smartcards enable users to sign digital documents. Using company- issued or third-party smartcards, employees will be able to fill out and sign online expense reports and group insurance forms.
3. Ray of Hope
Fiberless optical networks ETA: 2 years
The performance of today's high-speed local area networks (LANs) and wide area networks (WANs) is like quicksilver -- fast but erratic. The link between the two -- the ''last mile'' -- is a notorious bottleneck. Copper wires are jammed with increasing traffic, and the cost of the alternative -- laying optical fibers from the WAN to the door of the LAN -- has so far proven exorbitant.
Ultimately, optical switching and microphotonics -- tiny optical transmission devices -- will render the problem moot. Until then, technology developed by TeraBeam Networks could go a long way toward speeding up data flow between WAN and LAN. TeraBeam has a fiberless optical system that delivers broadband capacity across the last mile -- on a beam of light. ''It's a revelation,'' says no less a light than George Gilder, noted futurist and fellow at Seattle's Discovery Institute, a public- policy think tank.
TeraBeam's system uses photonics, an optical technology around since the 1980s, coupled with holographic and telescopic technologies. The combination sends a ''fuzzy'' (expanded) laser beam to transmitter/receivers in the windows of subscribers. The system can transmit up to one gigabit of data per second -- 640 times faster than some alternatives.
TeraBeam's technology employs standard Internet security protocols, encoding data using methods much like those used by current mobile telephony. And it's inexpensive. Transmitter/receivers, the size of a small satellite dish, cost around $150 and take just a few days to install. The system has been tested in Seattle's business district. Service rollout to other US cities is in the works.
4. Up on the Net Without a Wire
Wireless Application Protocol ETA: 2 years
You can't swing a dead cat these days without hitting a vendor pushing a wireless Internet product. The hype exists for one reason: the massive potential of the wireless Net.
First, a little background. Most mobile Internet products are based on the wireless application protocol. WAP is a data-delivery specification developed as a global open industry standard. The protocol enables Internet content to be displayed on the small screens of handheld devices (mobile phones, personal digital assistants, and so forth). Before WAP, surfing the Net wirelessly was like swimming in Jell-O because of the relatively low data-transmission levels. Early WAP-enabled products haven't been much better, with consumer complaints about slow log-on times and lack of wireless content.
Nevertheless, the future of WAP -- and wireless data -- looks rosy. In general, Japan leads the way in mobile data, with Europe fast closing in. Tapio Hedman, vice president of communications at Finland-based phone maker Nokia, predicts that in three years, there will be more mobile devices than PCs connected to the Net. ''We don't only think WAP is changing the way companies do business,'' Hedman says, ''it will ultimately affect the way Net users use different services.''
The key to WAP's future will be convenience, says Rickard Gustafson, managing director of the European ebusiness group at GE Capital Corp. If a shopper exhausts a line of credit while shopping, says Gustafson, ''with his mobile, he can go online and get a credit extension.'' Much will also depend on the ability of GPRS (general packet radio service), which vastly increases the data capacity of networks and phones. In Japan, which boasts a similar concept called I-Mode, sales of handsets have soared since its launch.
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