Future Tense

Recently, Global Business Network produced a set of scenarios for the political and economic fallout of the global financial crisis. The consultancy created a matrix defined by two key uncertainties: the depth and length of a global recession and the nature of political leadership during the crisis. The four resulting possibilities range from a scenario in which house prices recover and a mild recession results in global financial markets remaining decentralized, lightly regulated, and highly liquid (a scenario now increasingly less plausible, unfortunately) to a story line called "the global unraveling," in which a long, deep recession occurs and "outrage about the socialization of economic losses provokes populist, protectionist, and anti-immigration sentiments" among nations.

If scenario planning sounds resource-intensive, it can be. A company may have 20 to 30 people constructing scenarios simultaneously. And a broad, diverse group of corporate leaders must be engaged: these include decision makers, knowledge-holders, and "the creative and the curious," Turner says. "If you just listen to yourself and the same people you always talk to, you'll miss the big idea — often people won't want to consider certain possibilities, because they don't fit their 'mental maps.'"

Senior sponsorship is essential, and even the consultants caution against leaning too heavily on consultants. Much of the value in scenario planning is the "journey, the conversations with colleagues about what the future may hold," Turner stresses. As one futurist has said, the forecaster's task is to map uncertainty. In this business climate, scenario planning may be the closest thing to a GPS you're likely to find. — V.R.

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