Is Your Finance Job Recession-proof?

And most commentators agree — tax is one area of finance that may be recession-proof. "We see a lot of ramp-up on staffing in the tax department," says Hall. "If there's a 1 percent opportunity to reduce the effective tax rate, that will pay for a lot of tax attorneys."

But if tax experts can count on work, it may be at several different companies. Hall says most corporate efforts to reduce tax rates are done on a project basis, typically lasting 18-24 months. For tax folks, that may mean a peripatetic future of moving from company to company. If that's not your style, then you need to be ensconced deep inside the inner-circle of your chosen firm's tax department. "The long-term staffing for a tax department is similar to treasury," says Hall. "It's a very lean organization when the company's tax environment is stable."

Korn/Ferry's Eldridge agrees that "tax is hot" because companies see it as a function that can generate cash in a downturn. But he's less convinced that the long-term model is project-based. He says he's very recently seen efforts to have historically autonomous tax departments create strategic plans that mirror the company's own business plans "That's stepping tax up into a new category of being more strategic." Either way, though, a career in tax seems to be a good bet.

Internal Audit
A career in internal audit does, too. Internal audit departments should be stable in the face of an economic downturn — at least to the extent that companies appreciate the value they provide, according to David Richards, global president at the Institute of Internal Auditors.

Many internal auditors already try to prove their worth via the cost recovery they provide through their audits. "They routinely give back to the organization multiples of three, four, and five times the cost of operating the department," Richards says. "Organizations are going to be looking at their large cost items, and internal auditing is not a major cost factor."

Hackett's Hall is even more bullish. "Because they can displace external audit costs, internal audit will be a very strong player for years to come," says the consultant, who predicts it as a very stable job in the coming years.

At the same time, companies in the throes of bottom-line pressures and cost cutbacks aren't likely to fill open positions in the near term, Richards adds. That could affect the internal audit department, he says. "The market has been very tight for internal auditors, so I'm sure there are plenty of job openings that are currently unfilled, and that is one of the first places organizations will look to from a staffing standpoint," he says.

Indeed, Korn/Ferry's Eldridge says that the "substantial hiring post-Sarbox" quieted down about this time last year. And while he sees a few companies beginning to hire for internal audit again after that lull, he suspects many may be looking at ways to consolidate internal audit with the risk management and compliance functions. "I don't know that internal audit is recession-proof," he says. "Companies have internal audit, risk, and compliance. This would be a way to streamline. There's a good business reason, and now there may be a good economic reason."

Controller
While there may be room for debate about whether internal audit is a consolidation target, there is general agreement that the controller's office will be a focus of shrinkage. "Clearly the controller's organization is at risk for cuts," says Hall. The traditional controller, he says, splits his or her time between classic transactional accounting and a more strategic role. "As we go to globalization, we need to pull those roles apart," he says. "If I'm controller of a business in Minneapolis and 100 percent of my accounting work is performed in Poland, then by definition I am an analyst," he says. "This is a particularly dynamic space."

Eldridge also sees the controller's office as one of the most likely areas for cuts. After making substantial investments in that area to make business more efficient, the headhunter says, companies will be looking to continue the trend. "Once you've walked through the process to streamline, you can't stop." He sees the controller's office as one of the most likely to send functions offshore. "From a headcount perspective, you might go up, but it will be 300 [employees] overseas as opposed to 100 here."

The good news, says Eldridge, is if the definition of a controller left on this shore is an analyst, that's a good job. "Companies need to pay attention to the financial planning and analysis function," he says. "That's a great spot for finance people, and a great spot to rotate in and out of in terms of developing more skills." For finance folks whose experience is primarily in controller-type work, he says, FP&A represents an opportunity to develop a more attractive resume in case the worst does happen.

Treasury
Already one of the leanest departments in corporate finance, it's hard to believe that treasury could come in for cutbacks. Indeed, if a recession becomes a reality, much of the responsibility of dealing with it will fall on the shoulders of corporate treasurers. Sometimes dubbed "chief liquidity officers," they'll have to figure out what to do when the liquidity runs dry.

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